More than nine in ten large Chinese solar manufacturers are still operating at a loss, even after module prices rose between 10 and 30 percent, according to an International Energy Agency report cited by PV Magazine USA. The sector’s combined net losses widened from $4.4 billion in 2024 to nearly $5.5 billion the following year, and over 70 firms have filed for bankruptcy or liquidation since 2024.<\/p>\n
The price increases have not been enough to return the industry to health. The IEA does not expect meaningful diversification of solar supply chains beyond China until at least 2031, with polysilicon and wafer manufacturing forecast to remain especially concentrated in Chinese facilities.<\/p>\n
The report sketches several scenarios for individual supply chain segments. Polysilicon capacity could contract by as much as 45 percent if the current rate of bankruptcies continues with no fresh investment, or by around 15 percent if market conditions improve. Silicon wafer output is expected to fall somewhere between 10 and 35 percent depending on how the market develops, while cell and module assembly capacity may decline by 5 to 15 percent.<\/p>\n
Some manufacturers are attempting to offset losses by moving into adjacent businesses, particularly battery energy storage integration. The IEA report cautions that if capacity expansion in that segment again outpaces demand, the solar sector’s overproduction crisis could carry over into the battery market.<\/p>\n