Wind energy market trends: China’s dominance in supply chains and changing growth dynamics

Wood Mackenzie experts have analyzed the key trends in the development of onshore and offshore wind power in 2025. The Ukrainian Wind Energy Association published an overview of their report in Ukrainian.

Unlike the United States, where the administration of the new President Donald Trump is abandoning the priority of green energy development, Europe continues to rely on renewable sources and, in particular, wind energy as the basis for its economic growth.

At the end of February, the European Commission presented the Clean Industrial Deal, aimed at strengthening domestic producers, increasing Europe’s competitiveness and overcoming China’s significant market influence.

Wood Mackenzie experts have analyzed the key trends in onshore and offshore wind power in the coming years.

Growth of the global onshore wind market (excluding China)

In 2025, for the first time, the volume of new capacity will reach almost 50 GW per year. This will be an important milestone before the recovery of the wind energy markets in Western countries and the Asia-Pacific region.

Changes in the sector’s growth dynamics

In 2020-2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of onshore wind power decreased by 2%. The projected transition to a positive CAGR of 6% by the end of the decade indicates the importance of 2025 in reversing this negative trend. This will be made possible by increased commercial activity and investment in supply chains.

China’s dominance in the global supply chain

Chinese manufacturers will maintain their leadership in 2025, as they currently provide 68% of the world’s onshore wind turbine manufacturing capacity. Over the next decade, Chinese OEMs are expected to account for an average of 25% of the onshore wind market outside of China. In addition, 68% of all wind turbines commissioned in 2025 will be Chinese-made.

Gradual financial recovery of Western OEMs

In 2024, Western manufacturers showed signs of financial recovery, but order volumes in their key markets declined, while the average selling price of turbines continued to rise. In 2025, the cost of onshore wind turbines ($/MW) is expected to decline, but the average selling price (ASP) will increase.

The financial reports of GE Vernova and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) confirm the difficult situation in 2025: GE Vernova predicts a decline in revenues and negative EBITDA, while SGRE expects to reach the break-even point in fiscal year 2026. At the same time, Vestas and Nordex are projected to maintain their financial performance in 2024, indicating a slow pace of financial recovery.

Increased investment in modernization and decommissioning of old turbines

In 2025, global investments in wind turbine repowering and decommissioning will increase to 4.6 GW and 4.3 GW, respectively. Almost 11 GW of onshore wind capacity will reach 20 years of operation, which will increase the total global volume of turbines with a service life of more than 20 years to 48 GW.

The Spanish market may become one of the leaders in the process of modernizing the existing wind turbine fleet, in particular due to the grid connection deadline of June 1, 2026. This is especially true for projects that received government infrastructure grants in 2022.

2025 may become not only a year of adaptation, but also a critical test for the future of the wind energy industry. If Western countries do not find effective mechanisms to support their production and implement a more strategic supply chain policy, they risk losing their competitiveness on a global scale.

At the same time, the UWEA notes that the role of wind energy as the basis of the energy transition will only increase, which guarantees the attraction of investments in this sector, despite political and economic challenges.