European Gas Prices Break €100 for First Time Since 2022 Energy Crisis

European natural gas futures briefly crossed €100 per megawatt-hour at the Dutch TTF hub on October 28, rising roughly four percent above the previous session. The threshold had not been breached since the 2022 energy crisis, when prices reached a record of around €340 per megawatt-hour in August of that year.

The surge is driven by the Middle East conflict and the resulting disruptions to liquefied natural gas shipments, which have left fewer cargoes available heading into winter. Reuters, citing Intercontinental Exchange data, reported that current prices are nearly three times the level recorded before tensions with Iran escalated. LNG prices in Asia have simultaneously risen to four-year highs, adding further upward pressure on global gas prices.

European storage buffers are thinner than a year ago. EU reserves stand at nearly 75 percent capacity, while Germany’s are around 60 percent — well below 2025 levels. Mild October weather allowed faster-than-usual replenishment; TTF touched €90 on October 20 before retreating, but the cushion remains limited. Rystad Energy analyst Mathieu Utting cautioned that the region now has less capacity to quickly offset supply disruptions.

The gas rally is feeding through to electricity markets. Germany’s 2027 baseload power contract climbed to €159.3 per megawatt-hour, and France’s traded near a two-year high of €122.5. Analysts expect elevated gas prices to persist for at least a year even if winter stays mild and the regional conflict is resolved. Energy Aspects has warned that a colder-than-average winter combined with constrained supply could push TTF above €200 per megawatt-hour — a stark contrast to the U.S. equivalent of roughly €8.5.

Source: GMK Center