US Clean Energy Pipeline Faces 540 GW Loss as Federal Policy Shifts, NRDC Finds

Between 390 and 540 gigawatts of planned wind, solar, and battery storage capacity could disappear from the United States over the next decade if the federal government proceeds with canceling Inflation Reduction Act tax incentives, imposing fresh tariffs, and buying out offshore wind leases. That projection comes from a new Natural Resources Defense Council analysis examining the combined effect of current policy changes on the country’s energy buildout.

Critically, NRDC finds no comparable new source of supply would fill the gap. Under the same policy scenario, the US would add at most 9 GW of gas-fired generation — a marginal figure explained by supply chain constraints on gas turbines, volatile fuel costs, and the continuing economic edge that new renewable projects hold over fossil alternatives.

Data from the Global Energy Monitor adds texture to the gas side of the equation: 189 GW of gas capacity is currently somewhere between announcement and active construction across the country. The pipeline is fragile, however. Two-thirds of those projects — and more than half of those targeting data-center load — have yet to secure a turbine or engine supplier. Facing long order queues, developers are increasingly choosing simpler, less efficient plant designs that carry higher per-unit emissions.

Levin, who leads policy analysis at NRDC, acknowledged that her group’s modeling still points to growth in renewables under the present administration, but cautioned: “we won’t move as far, and we’ll lose more than half of everything we expected to build.” She also argued that the drift toward lower-quality gas infrastructure illustrates why market signals alone are insufficient to drive rational energy choices.

The financial consequences would be broad. NRDC estimates fossil fuel spending in the power sector would rise by $5 to $15 billion, IRA-linked tax credit value would fall by $45 billion, and average residential electricity bills would end up 4.2 to 5.5 percent higher by 2035 relative to a baseline in which current clean-energy policy remains intact.

Source: Utility Dive