US Onshore Wind Rushes to Beat Tax Credit Deadline as Offshore Faces Federal Freeze

The onshore wind sector in the United States is recording a sharp surge in equipment orders even as federal authorities move to block offshore auctions and seek court injunctions against in-progress offshore projects.

The driver is a shift in how existing tax incentives are applied. Under recently enacted federal legislation, developers who broke ground before July 4, 2026, retain eligibility for the 45Y and 48E tax credits provided their projects are operational by December 31, 2030. Any facility that missed that construction start faces a tighter deadline: commissioning must be complete by December 31, 2027.

Wood Mackenzie analysts report that roughly 5 GW of onshore wind capacity came online during the period, driven largely by the 3.65 GW SunZia facility in New Mexico — currently the largest onshore wind installation in the country. The firm’s broader outlook holds at 39 GW of new onshore capacity through 2030, a forecast Wood Mackenzie says remains stable: more than half of the projects counted in that forecast are already generating power or under active construction, making a significant drop-off before 2028 unlikely.

Not every segment shares that momentum. The repowering market saw its quarterly projection cut by 1 GW after equipment orders for turbine upgrades came in below expectations.

A regulatory headwind is taking shape for future projects: updated structural standards for wind turbines sited in tornado-prone regions are set to be issued by the American Society of Civil Engineers next year, a step analysts anticipate will add to overall project costs.

Source: Utility Dive